Since I've started joining startup communities, I've be deluged with opportunities to hear how founders "made it," as well as offers of mentorship from people with a lot less experience than myself. Granted, I'm not a successful entrepreneur, but I have a deep and flourishing understanding of how businesses succeed. And it's not by imitating someone else's success.
Farnam Street: Survivorship Bias: The Tale of Forgotten Failures, 2019-Dec by Shane Parrish
Considering survivorship bias when presented with examples of success is difficult. It is not instinctive to pause, reflect, and think through what the base rate odds of success are and whether you’re looking at an outlier or the expected outcome. And yet if you don’t know the real odds, if you don’t know if what you’re looking at is an example of survivorship bias, then you’ve got a blind spot.
Whenever you read about a success story in the media, think of all the people who tried to do what that person did and failed. Of course, understanding survivorship bias isn’t an excuse for not taking action, but rather an essential tool to help you cut through the noise and understand the world. If you’re going to do something, do it fully informed.