We don't realize how much we're all used to getting along without facts...
Unhealthy growth

We gotta find better ways to decide public policy. Maybe this will help...

The fact that polling is broken and easy answers are so infernally popular has me looking for ways to improve decision making. Maybe this will help...

Nature: A solution to the single-question crowd wisdom problem, 2017-Jan-26, by Drazen Prelec, H. Sebastian Seung, and John McCoy

Here we propose the following alternative to a democratic vote: select the answer that is more popular than people predict. We show that this principle yields the best answer under reasonable assumptions about voter behaviour, while the standard ‘most popular’ or ‘most confident’ principles fail under exactly those same assumptions. Like traditional voting, the principle accepts unique problems, such as panel decisions about scientific or artistic merit, and legal or historical disputes. The potential application domain is thus broader than that covered by machine learning and psychometric methods, which require data across multiple questions. 

Tq170304dm

Comments