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8 posts from May 2013

TFS: Getting better forecasts by crushing availability bias

Daniel Kahneman says the biggest hurdle to eliminating "availability bias" is that it requires a tireseome amount of effort. You have to second-guess yourself all the time. But if you make the effort, you may improve your quality of life. Tq130503eb

  • Don't avoid that short cut just because your car had a flat there yesterday.
  • Don't stop reading an author because you didn't like the last book.
  • Avoid the "I tried that once and it didn't work" fallacy. If it works for others, why shouldn't it work for you? Dig down to reality.
  • Don't rely on your poor memory for statistical facts. When my family visited Banf in July, temperatures stayed over 80 degrees for three days. Was that typical? No way

Finally, one of the weird aspects of availability bias is that it can reverse. Judgements can be incorrect because our self-image or expectations deny the cue. Maybe that's why we all think we're above average drivers.