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Don't swallow the story

The latest trend in advertising is to tell more stories. Of course, great advertising has always relied on stories, but direct marketing has often been very mechanical. Storytelling classes are now being promoted, and story templates can be purchased.

Tq130528sfDaniel Kahneman points out that plausibility often trumps logic. Our System 1 mind craves coherence and will gladly subsititute something that sounds logical for the hard work of analyzing probability that System 2 could apply. Remenber that phrase, 'you could look it up'? Who bothers?

When it comes to making investments, you should bother. Future market conditions are impossible to predict in the short term, and only slightly less predictable in the long term. A pretty plausible story doesn't negate that. Diversifying your portfolio allows you to accept many outcomes.